The interest rate in 2019 – the experts’ views

By Emma Lunn

Jan 07, 2019

Mortgage Strategy has canvassed the opinion of a number of industry experts regarding what will happen to interest rates in 2019.

Inevitably, the coming 12 months are trickier to predict than other years as we’re yet to find out what kind of deal, if any, the UK will leave the EU with. This has led to a wider spread of views than might be expected.

Investec Private Bank business development manager Peter Izard thinks we’ll see two 0.25 per cent interest rate rises in the coming year, with the base rate at 1.25 per cent by the end of 2019.

Coreco brand director Andrew Montlake says Brexit means any kind of prediction is fraught with danger. “On the face of it, the gentle pace of interest rate rises should continue, ceterus paribus, with one or two rises of 0.25 per cent easing rates up over the next 12 months.

“The Bank of England will not want to deviate from this course of action unless circumstances really dictate otherwise and despite all the tough rhetoric from Carney, this would probably be the perfect scenario going forward,” he says.

However, other industry pundits disagree that we’ll see a rate rise or two. SPF Private Clients chief executive Mark Harris thinks interest rates will end 2019 at 1 per cent while John Charcol senior technical manager Ray Boulger doesn’t think we’ll see a raise at all – his guess is that bank rate will remain at 0.75 per cent for the whole of 2019.

London and Country communications director David Hollingworth even goes so far to float the idea that rates could fall next year. He says: “The current trajectory for interest rates has been upward and the Bank of England has been clear that rates could gradually ease up.

“However, although a disorderly Brexit wouldn’t necessarily change that path it may well see additional support to the economy being required and rates could come back down,” he adds.

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